Sep 6, 2009
Is it working?
Found at Innocent Bystanders by way of Greg Mankiw.
Yes, this comparison is a bit unfair. After all, a forecast made in January is just that … a forecast. And we all know that these forecasts are highly imprecise and uncertain, don’t we?
That said, isn’t this divergence from reality reason enough to treat the god-like claims to knowledge of our “best and brightest” with profound skepticism? Shouldn’t we recognize that even what we know is uncertain? (I’ll let you decide whether economics counts as uncertain knowledge or certain “unknowledge”).
This isn’t (or at least shouldn’t be) a partisan observation. It applies whether the plans in question are to take over the health care system, impose a new, more penal tax code, restructure regulation, or invade and rebuild a country.
Skepticism about what we can actually know and recognition that even what we know is subject to dramatic uncertainty is not a sufficient argument for inaction. Even inaction is a choice. This skepticism is, however, reason to prefer many and tentative experiments, performed on a small scale, close to the customer and subject to failure. This is how small businesses and charities approach the specific problems of specific customers every day. No business that fails to meet the needs of its customers will remain in operation indefinitely, let alone with automatically increasing revenue. Can the same be said of federal programs?
The problem with the last two to three generations of politicians is not just corruption. It’s hubris. With few notable exceptions, the politician’s instinct is for the singular, bold, permanent gesture, whose success is guaranteed in advance by consistently shifting baselines and the always available excuse that “but for the ‘Save XYZ for America’s Children and Future Act of yyyy’ it would have been much worse.”
This shouldn’t be surprising. After all, a talent for the bold gesture is what enables a politician to rise from anonymity to national office. But it should give us pause. Especially when they’re pretending to save us from the crisis du jour.